Key Messages

In recent months cereal prices have continued to follow a gradually decreasing trend and maize prices in the capital city were lower than prices on the international market.

Pockets of food insecurity exist due to different localized shocks such as poor rains in the southeast or floods in Amhara region, while tensions with rebel groups continue.

Food security is improving throughout the country, and the number of people in need of food assistance during the last months of the year decreased to 2.3 million.

The government with the help of international agencies is continuing to assist the population while investing in agricultural production to increase food security.

- Following the meher harvest, which began in October 2010, food security has generally improved in the meher producing parts of the country. However, due to crop damage caused by widespread floods and other weather related shocks the meher harvest is likely to be lower than initially anticipated. The Humanitarian Requirement Documents outlining assistance needs is expected to be released in February 2011.

- Although the National Meteorology Agency has not provided a forecast for the April to June gu/genna/belg rains, below normal performance of these rains is considered likely. This is expected to exacerbate prevailing food insecurity which resulted from near complete failure of October to December rains in southern pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

- Due to close to normal sapie (December/January) 2010 rains food security among the dominant root crop, mainly sweet potatoes growing areas in central and eastern SNNPR is estimated to remain stable throughout the outlook period. The poor and very

- poor households normally rely on these harvests, during the March to May lean season.

- Staple food prices are likely to follow typical seasonal trends throughout the outlook period, though remain higher than the 2005 to 2009 averages given the current harvest and the continued price stabilization measures taken by the government.

Flood Update

New flooding has been reported in parts of the country in recent days, including in the eastern Amhara lowlands bordering Afar, and in northern Somali Region. In North Wollo zone (Amhara), regional and zonal government sources indicate that a flood-induced landslide, prompted by heavy rains on 22 August, claimed 19 lives and left 24 people injured and approximately 2,855 (571 households) displaced in Mersa woreda. In Oromia zone (Amhara), some 8,864 people (1,565 households) have been displaced in Arthuma Fursi, Kemissie and Dewa Cheffa woredas, including 4,658 people who evacuated to higher ground from five kebeles in Arthuma Fursi woreda one week ago and remain inaccessible due to surrounding flood waters. Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) deployed a helicopter to the affected area to conduct an assessment and provide emergency items including high energy biscuits and medical supplies. Readily available foods (flour and other nutrient-rich food stuffs), sanitary materials and health supplies for a possible outbreak of AWD, malaria and other waterborne diseases are among the prioritized requirements. To date, floods have affected all zones of Amhara except Awi zone and the number of affected and displaced population is significantly increasing. A contingency plan identifying US$ 6.8 million for life-saving emergency and recovery interventions was issued last week, estimating some 270,000 people could be affected by flooding in the region. Regional authorities and humanitarian partners including World Vision, CARE, Food for the Hungry International (FHI), Save the Children-UK, Concern, OCHA, WFP and UNICEF are responding to the needs of the affected population. FAO, together with partners, is organizing an emergency seed distribution, as well as livestock health support.

In the Somali Region, fresh flooding reportedly affected over 100 households in Ayisha woreda on 25 and 26 August. Households displaced from Las-hadad kebele - the most affected area - are temporarily staying at the elementary school in the village. The floods also washed away the water system in Las-hadad. Flooding has also been reported in Degago kebele of the woreda. A rapid assessment team comprising the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Bureau (DPPB) and Save the Children-UK has been deployed to the affected area.

In response to recent floods in Zone 1 of Afar Region, a joint team, including the Regional Food Security Bureau, Water Resource Development Bureau, FAO and Afar Pastoralist Development Association (APDA, local NGO), is conducting a rapid assessment, including in Milla and Aysita woredas, while the Regional Health Bureau (RHB) is preparing a flood response plan with support from UNICEF. UNICEF is prepositioning water treatment chemicals and emergency medicines in high-risk woredas to strengthen regional- and woreda-level coordination for flood and AWD preparedness and response. CARE is supporting flood-affected communities along the Awash River, including in Amibara, Gewane and Bure Mudaytu woredas, and has distributed household water treatment supplies to ensure a safe water supply for 3,889 households. Three mobile health teams have been deployed to provide preventive and curative health services to the affected population in Amibara woreda.

In light of the potential for further flooding in the remainder of the kiremt season (through September), the Government and partners last week issued a national flood contingency plan, which estimates that, nationally, some 153,000 people are likely to be affected by floods, of which 25 per cent could be displaced. According to DRMFSS, adequate stocks are available in country to cover the potential food and non-food requirements. Emergency items are being pre-positioned in flood-prone regions. Areas of particular concern include Nuer and Itang (Gambella); South Omo zone (SNNPR); parts of zone 1 and zone 3 (Afar); parts of Southern and Northern zones (Tigray); East, West and Southwest Shewa zones (Oromia); and North and South Wollo, North and South Gonder, North Shewa and Oromia zones (Amhara). For more information contact: DRMFSS-dppc@gov.et, ocha-eth@un.org, kmcdonald@unicef.org& fao-ethiopia@fao.org