Flooding Update

To prepare and respond to flooding over the past two months, the Amhara, SNNPR, Gambella, Tigray and Afar Disaster Prevention and Food Security Offices have prepared regional multi sectoral contingency and response plans, while DRMFSS has issued a national flood contingency plan and is now finalizing a flood response plan covering Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray. Meanwhile, the most recently updated on the regional plans is the Afar Flood Emergency Response Plan, endorsed by the regional authorities on 7 September 2010. This plan calls for an estimated US$ 3.4 million to meet the immediate- and short-term needs of some 67,490 people affected by flooding in the region since the beginning of August. It identifies a three-month relief food requirement of 4,496 metric tons (MT), worth approximately $2.4 million, with the remainder of the funding intended to meet the health and nutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene, agriculture and educational needs of the affected population. Among the areas already affected by flooding are Awash Fentale, Amibara, Buremudaitu and Gewane woredas (Zone 3), Mille, Dupti, Adaar and Aysaita woredas (Zone 1), Teru woreda (Zone 4), Abaala (Zone 2) and Dalifage, Dawe and Telalk woredas (Zone 5), with loss of livestock and damage to 3,096 hectares of crops, school and health infrastructure and homes and household assets reported. The increasing number of the affected population and expectation that new areas will continue to be affected has led the regional authorities to determine that the population's coping mechanisms and their own response capacity have been outstripped. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which is conducting ongoing flood damage assessments in the region, confirms the disaster's unprecedented scale and consequences. To date, more than 4,800 shoats have been lost to the floods, while 1,217 ha of cropland remains covered by standing water in Mille, Buremudaitu, Gewane, Amibara, Awash Fentale and Adaar. Grazing lands and fodder banks in the same areas are completely submerged as well.

In Las-hadad kebele of Ayisha woreda in Shinile zone (Somali Region), where heavy karan rainfall between 24 and 25 August caused flooding reported previously, the latest information indicates that some 40 houses have been destroyed, with all goods in the houses washed away. Some 45 shoats, 4 donkeys and 25 cattle also reportedly died in the flooding, which temporarily displaced an estimated 100 households into a neighbouring elementary school according to initial reports. At present, there has been no water supply to the kebele since the flooding occurred. As the community is using stagnant ground water sources for drinking and washing, water purification supplies are urgently needed. For more information, contact: kmcdonald@unicef.org, dorelyn.jose@fao.org& ocha-eth@un.org.

Food security conditions in the region have continued to improve due to the above?normal long rains, as well as the good performance of the June-August meher season in Ethiopia and Sudan. Food security is likely to continue to improve in the northern and western parts of the region from October to December as main season harvests take place and prices of staple foods decline.

However, early forecasts for the October to December rains indicate the probability of below normal rains in the eastern sector of the region due to a moderate La Niña episode. Below- normal rains would begin to impact food security toward the end of the year for pastoralists in the eastern sector, and in early 2011 for households in marginal agricultural areas.

Prices of staple foods have declined slightly in most markets in the region, due to increased supplies from local harvests, macro-economic policies favoring imports, and food aid interventions in Djibouti and Southern Sudan. However, prices have increased in south and central Somalia due to increased insecurity, taxation, and suspension of food aid, and in Northern Sudan due to the peak of the lean season.

Flooding Update

The most recent new incident of flooding has been reported from Gode zone, Somali Region, where more than 60,000 people have reportedly been affected by floods in Kelafo, Mustahil, Hargele and Charati woredas. The Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS), regional Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau (DPPB) and humanitarian partners conducted assessments in the affected areas, including aerial assessments, which show that some 800 homes have been destroyed, and schools, sanitation facilities, health posts and crops damaged. Among the most immediate needs are for food, health (including insecticide treated net (ITNs) and anti-malaria drugs), water, sanitation and hygiene, and education. The NGOs Merlin, CHF, ADRA and Islamic Relief, as well as UNICEF and WHO, are responding on the ground. The Regional Health Bureau (RHB) has relocated mobile health teams to Mustahil and Charati to strengthen health care, while UNICEF has provided emergency drugs, water treatment chemicals and high energy biscuits for distribution to malnourished children. A multi-agency coordination forum has been reactivated to facilitate response and preparedness activities. Preliminary reports also indicate that Ferfer woreda (Gode zone) and Dolo Bay woreda (Afder zone) have also been affected. While the impact of the most recent floods have been substantial - and concern has been raised as flooding is usually seen later in the year (October) - they have not been as severe as the earlier flooding that affected the same vicinity in May-June.

Heavy rains on 13 and 14 September also caused new flooding in Gambella Zuria, Lare and Itang woredas of Gambella region. The regional Disaster Preparedness and Food Security office (DPFS) conducted a preliminary assessment of Gambella Zuria on 15 August and is in process of updating information on the impact of flooding in Lare and Itang. The road to Lare has been cut off as a result of the flooding this week. However, repairs to reopen the road are ongoing. DRMFSS provided food and non-food items including 150 quintals of rice, 50 quintals of corn-soya-blend, 25 quintals of biscuits, plastic plates and cooking pots.

Overall, the regions most affected by flooding since August remain Amhara and Afar; some parts of Oromia, Tigray and SNNPR have also been affected. According to DRMFSS, some 50,755 flood-induced internally displaced persons (IDPs) have received food assistance and 86,752 flood-affected people have benefitted from shelter and non-food items. DRMFSS has provided seeds to Tigray and SNNPR, as well as support to rehabilitate infrastructure damaged by flooding in Tigray. For more information, contact: ocha-eth@un.org or kmcdonald@unicef.org.

Normal to above-normal rains result in heavy flooding

Key Messages

- The number of people requiring emergency food assistance up to December 2010 is likely to decrease following the June/July 2010 belg harvest, generally stable prices across the country, improved availability of water and pasture, and favorable livestock to cereals terms of trade in pastoral and agropastoral areas.

- Following normal to above normal kiremt/karma rains, heavy floods have affected a large number of people in different parts of the country. Floods in Amhara and Afar Regions were particularly severe.

- Staple food prices are unseasonably low this year. This is expected to benefit the poor farmers, urban poor, pastoral and agro pastoral population who spend a significant proportion of their income on the purchase of food.

Special focus on nutrition

Acute malnutrition remains high but access to treatment keeps increasing

67 nutrition surveys have been conducted, between January and July 2010, in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Somalia. Overall, the nutritional situation has seen little change in the region, except in Northern parts of Somalia where a significant improvement has been noticed: Kenya: Most of the 14 surveys conducted in Kenya took place in the ASAL areas, where malnutrition remained at high levels: rates of severe acute malnutrition ( S AM ) often reached 4% and more, while global acute malnutrition ( GAM ) was mainly measured between 15 and 25%. These rates are beyond emergency levels.

Uganda: Surveys conducted in Uganda were part of a nutrition surveillance system developed in the Karamoja region ( North East) , and showed medium rates of acute malnutrition, with prevalence around 1 and 2% for SAM and around 10 and 15% for GAM. These rates are consistent with previous years ' estimates.

Ethiopia: rates of SAM and GAM are low in most of the 18 surveys recorded for Ethiopia in the first quarter of the year ( 2nd quarter data not available yet ) . SAM rarely reached more than 1% for under 5 children while GAM mostly varied between 5 and 15%.

Somalia: Most surveys in the north showed GAM rates below 10% and SAM rates below 1%, indicating a significant reduction in malnutrition. However, rates of GAM and SAM in the south and in IDP camps remained very high, often higher than 20% for GAM and higher than 3% for SAM.

Lack of improved nutritional status of the mentioned populations should not hide the fact that major achievements have been reached in 2009 in terms of access to treatment for severely malnourished children and are continuing to improve in 2010.

GLIDE n=B0 FL-2010-000170-ETH

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC) Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) is a source of un-earmarked money created by the Federation in 1985 to ensure that immediate financial support is available for Red Cross and Red Crescent emergency response. The DREF is a vital part of the International Federation's disaster response system and increases the ability of National Societies to respond to disasters.

CHF 300,000 (USD 305,130 or EUR 226,080) has been allocated from the IFRC's Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) to support the National Society in delivering immediate assistance to 25,000 beneficiaries. Unearmarked funds to repay DREF are encouraged.

Summary: Since May 2010, Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS) has been providing assistance to the families affected by flooding through the distribution of relief items from its contingency stocks provided by the ICRC. Flooding has intensified since beginning of August 2010 and the level of vulnerability increased beyond the disaster response capacity of the National Society as relief items stock is depleted. ERCS has requested the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC) for disaster relief emergency fund (DREF) and technical support to assist 5,000 families displaced by the recent floods. The DREF will be used to replenish some of the contingency stocks used by ERCS during the floods response operation in East Shewa, West Shewa and West Hararghe zones of Oromiya region.

This operation is expected to be implemented over six weeks, and will therefore be completed by 5 November, 2010; a Final Report will be made available three months after the end of the operation (by 05 February, 2011).

Flooding was reported from Dasenech and Nayngatom woredas in South Omo zone of SNNPR in mid-September. Initial reports indicate that some 15,000 people in Dasenech woreda and 1,600 people in Gnangatom woreda, all living along the Omo River delta, have been affected. Some 840 people have reportedly been evacuated to safer areas using emergency boats.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that flood waters have largely subsided in Amhara Region and communities have started to return to their homes. More than 95 per cent of the estimated 70,000 people displaced by floods in Habru and Kobo woredas of North Wollo zone are reported to have returned to their villages. However, the affected communities continue to require support to recover from the impact of the floods, particularly in the area of livelihoods support, and specifically, seed provision.

The risk of further flooding remains elevated in flood-prone areas of the country: the latest National Meteorology Agency forecast anticipates continued above-normal rains in western, southern and southwestern parts of the country through the end of September. Three major dams (Lake Tana in Amhara, Koka in Oromia and Gilgel Gibe in SNNPR) are reported to have reached their maximum levels, posing high flood risks for downstream communities. The Ministry of Water Resources reports that alert messages have been transmitted to the concerned regions and communities to take preparedness measures.

Federal and regional level response and preparedness activities also continue. The National Disaster Prevention Committee, led by the Deputy Prime Minister, and which was reactivated in early September has developed a draft flood response and contingency plan for the coming three months. For more information, contact: och-eth@un.org

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

As of early September, food security had improved due to the successful June to July belg harvest and improved pastoral conditions, according to the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). In addition, FEWS NET predicts a good October-January meher crop season due to above-average main June-September kiremt rains. FEWS NET predicts that the number of people requiring emergency food assistance will decline through December due to the successful harvest, stabilizing food prices throughout the country, improved water and pasture availability for livestock, and increased income for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists due to sales of healthier livestock.  

Normal to above-normal kiremt/karma rains have caused heavy flooding in large areas of Ethiopia, particularly affecting Amhara and Afar regions. As of September 20, heavy floods in Somali Region had displaced more than 60,000 people in Kelafo, Mustahil, Hargele, and Charati districts, according to the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE).

USAID/OFDA supports populations in Ethiopia through a range of humanitarian assistance activities, including rapid-response programs in nutrition and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), as well as longer term interventions to address health, nutrition, water, and food security needs.

Flooding Update

The likelihood of further flooding is decreasing in most parts of the country with the end of the kiremt (June to October) rains, according to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS), and no new incidents of flooding have been reported in the past two weeks. The latest National Meteorological Agency forecast predicts below-normal rainfall in the eastern half of the country in the coming months, including the pastoral areas of Borena zone (Oromia), South Omo zone (SNNPR) and the southern zones of Somali Region, despite the potential for further flooding during the forthcoming short rainy seasons. Similarly, FEWSNET reports that the formation of a La Niña phenomenon in the central Pacific Ocean is associated with drier-than-normal conditions across the eastern Horn of Africa, although above-average rains may still be seen in the western Horn, which covers western parts of Ethiopia (Gambella and Benishangul Gumuz regions). The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) reports that the water levels in dams and rivers around the country are being closely monitored. Controlled water discharge has started from Koka and Gilgel-Gibe dams with all precautionary measures  undertaken, including construction of reservoirs and gorges to channel the water released from the dams to prevent destruction of property and infrastructure in downstream areas. DRMFSS has dispatched teams to assess the situation and analyze associated risks in the areas surrounding the dams. DRMFSS also deployed  multidisciplinary incident management teams to Somali (Gode), Gambella and Afar regions to monitor the development of flood situations there. Preparations are underway to send similar teams to South Omo zone (SNNPR).

Meanwhile, the findings of a joint assessment in Gambella Region indicate that flash and river flooding temporarily displaced some 26,000 people and damaged 1,280 hectare of cropland in Lare, Itang, Gambella Zuria and Gog woredas and Gambella town. According to the report, the emergency requirements of the affected population have been addressed in timely fashion, with food aid distributions conducted in August and early September, and non-food items, including plastic sheets, blanket and jerry cans, provided. Water guard and oral-rehydration solutions (ORS) have also been dispatched to the affected population. The report recommends continued emergency food aid distributions to the 26,048 people displaced and provision of corn-soya blend (CSB) for 35 per cent of the affected population. Additional plastic sheeting, mosquito nets and water treatment chemicals are among the prioritized needs. Provision of early-maturing seeds is recommended ahead of the upcoming recession farming period. Veterinary interventions, including livestock treatment and vaccination valued at two million birr, have also been included in the report. For more information contact: ocha-eth@un.org

Health Update

With the end of the kiremt (June to October) rains, the number of new cases of Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) reported is decreasing. Over the past two weeks, 66 cases have been reported, according to the Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute (EHNRI), including 27 cases (none fatal) between 27 and 3 October in Amhara (Jiletumuga woreda, Oromia zone), Oromia (Gorodolla and Shakiso woredas, Guji zone) and SNNPR (Dilla Zuria and Yirgachefe woredas, Gedeo zone; Dera woreda, Sidama zone; and Dilla town). The corrected case figure for the week of 20 to 26 September is 39 cases reported from Dire Dawa, Oromia and SNNPR.

Meanwhile, there have been no reports of AWD cases associated with the Gishen Mariam religious ceremony, which was celebrated in Amhara on 1 October. Ahead of the celebration, a committee including the regional and zonal health bureaus, WHO, UNICEF, OCHA, Oxfam and Save the Children UK provided technical and financial support in AWD outbreak prevention and contro,l and other health emergency response in, Amabsel (Gishen Mariam), Dessie, Tehulledere, Kutaber (Teleyaye) and Kombolcha woredas. In addition, WHO and UNICEF conducted an AWD outbreak investigation assessment in Oromia zone (Amhara), concluding that preventive and control measures have been put in place and case management has been good. A committee has been established to study the cross border implications and other causes of the disease in the surrounding areas. EHNRI provided drugs, medical supplies and technical support to the Dire Dawa city administration, and UNICEF supported the training of 34 case treatment center (CTC) staff on surveillance, case management, CTC establishment and management in the Administration. CARE distributed 312,480 sachets of PUR to 5,208 households in Kurfa Chele woreda (East Hararghe zone, Oromia) and IRC provided 1,600 bottles of water guard in Gedeo zone (SNNPR) sufficient for an equivalent number of families for one month. The Ethiopian Red Cross and Red Crescent Society, with funding from WHO, is supporting the implementation of AWD prevention activities in Guji zone (Oromia) and Gedeo zone (SNNPR).

A large number of new measles cases was reported again in the past week, with 823 cases (six deaths) in Oromia (38 cases), SNNP (779 cases and six deaths) and Addis Ababa (six cases) between 27 September and 3 October. Affected woredas include Agarfa, Dawa Sara, Ginir and Goro (Oromia) and Aroresa, Bensa, Male, Benatsemay, South Ari and North Ari (SNNPR) and Addis Ababa. WHO supported a training of trainers on measles supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) for zonal supervisors as part of the pre-vaccination campaign preparation. The vaccination campaign is scheduled from 22 to 25 October in SNNPR. For more information, contact: who-wro@et.afro.who.int& kmcdonald@unicef.org

Seasonal Outlook

The latest National Meteorology Agency (NMA) seasonal performance projection for the bega season (October to January) forecasts favourable conditions for meher harvest and post-harvest agricultural activities. The outlook for the bega season anticipates normal to above-normal rains across western, northwestern and southwestern parts of the country, including the western part of Tigray, western half of Amhara, some parts of SNNP, and Gambella, which should be conducive for perennial crops. However, the normal to below-normal rains expected to fall over eastern, northeastern and parts of southwestern areas of country, including in central and eastern parts of Amhara, Afar, eastern Tigray and eastern parts of SNNP, are likely to have a negative impact on meher agricultural activities and the availability of pasture and water. Moreover, the forecast for below-normal rains in the majority of southern and southeastern parts of the country, including most of Somali and southern parts of Oromia, means that pasture and water availabilities are likely to be affected. This last prognosis is further supported by the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which indicates that the La Niña phenomenon reported last month has strengthened and is expected to extend into 2011. A La Niña normally leads to below-normal rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa, including the pastoralist lowlands of Ethiopia.

- Food security has improved in the meher crop producing parts of the country following the start of the meher harvest this month. Although the annual crop assessment has not yet been conducted, overall meher season production is expected to be average to above average this year following the average to above-average kiremt season rains.

- According to the National Metrology Agency (NMA) forecast for the bega season rains (October to January), normal rainfall distribution and quantity are likely to occur across the west and northwest regions of the country while drier than average weather is expected over much of eastern half of the nation.

- Food security is expected to deteriorate in the eastern parts of SNNPR beginning in February/March following the anticipated below-average sapie rains and a resulting decline in the production of transitional crops, mainly sweet potato.

- Water availability, both for human and livestock consumption, is expected to deteriorate in the southern zones of Somali Region, neighboring lowlands of Bale, Borena and Guji zones of Oromia region and South Omo zone of SNNPR following the predicted poor deyr (October to December) rains in these parts of the country.

Executive summary

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)'s Africa Zone (Zone) covers 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa1 and is divided into six functional/geographical regions namely West Coast (Abuja), Sahel (Dakar), Central Africa (Yaoundé), Indian Ocean Islands (Mauritius), East Africa (Nairobi), and Southern Africa (Johannesburg). Based on the scale and scope of humanitarian challenges and emergency operations, there are currently eight IFRC country representation offices in Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea/Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger, Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe, directly accountable to the Africa Zone office based in Johannesburg.

The Africa Zone resulted from the merger of the three former zone offices (East, West and Central and Southern Africa) into an overarching continental office that outlines the overall strategic direction of the functional structures. In order to effectively coordinate operations, channel support and services to the membership, being the 48 National Societies (NS), two operational support hubs have been created in within the Sahel and East Africa regional offices with provision for technical programme support upon NS request as well as zone-level roles in key support services (including finance, logistics, information technology/telecommunication and human resources) and humanitarian diplomacy (including Communications, resource mobilisation, and performance and accountability.

Food Security Update

The latest FEWS-NET/WFP food security outlook indicates that food security has improved in meher (long cycle crops)- producing parts of the country with the start of the harvest in October and anticipates favorable conditions from October to March in most parts of the country. According to the report, prices of staple foods have reduced and household purchasing power has increased due to improvements in physical conditions of livestock. However, the report also indicates that food security conditions are likely to deteriorate in eastern parts of SNNPR starting in February/March, as below-average sapie (January to mid February) rains are expected and may led to below-normal production of transitional crops, including sweet potato. Food security conditions in flood-affected areas of Southern Tigray zone, North Wello, South Wello and Oromia zones (Amhara), and in the highlands of East and West Hararghe zones (Oromia) also require close monitoring, as livestock have been lost, crops damaged and household assets destroyed. Moreover, water availability is expected to deteriorate in the southern zones of Somali Region, neighboring lowlands of Bale, Borena and Guji zones (Oromia) and South Omo zone (SNNPR) due to the anticipated below normal pastoral rains from October to December. For more information, contact: ethiopia@fewsnet.net& wfp.addisababa@wfp.org

The recent IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) forecast confirms that a La Niña event continues and will likely persist into 2011. As a result, rainfall during the October?December period is likely to be below?average in the eastern sector of East Africa (Figure 1). An analysis of rainfall during past La Niña years suggests that while early season rainfall may be favorable, precipitation later in the season is likely to be erratic and end early. This poor performance is expected to result in a worse than usual January?March lean season, offsetting the modest recovery in household food security which occurred during 2009/10, following three years of drought. March?May 2011 rains, the major rains for this region, may also be below?average. Four areas are of particular concern: agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia (Area A), southeast marginal cropping areas of Kenya (Area B), cropping areas of Rwanda/Burundi (Area C), and pastoral areas of Somalia, northeastern Kenya, and southeastern Ethiopia. In these at?risk areas, household receipt of livelihood support over the comingmonths could help to prevent deterioration in food security.

Nutrition Update

The government's Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit (ENCU) reported a generally stable nutrition situation at the national level in September, although some areas in Amhara (Wogera woreda) and Benishangul Gumuz (Banbasi) require close monitoring. Assessments are planned for these woredas. Based on the September Therapeutic Feeding Programmes (TFP) monthly reports received from Afar, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP, Somali and Tigray, a total 15,178 severely malnourished children were admitted at 5,297 TFP sites (overall reporting rate of 73.2 per cent for the month). According to ENCU, admissions to TFP showed a decreasing trend in August and September 2010, after holding stable between April and July. Decreased admissions rates were particularly reported in SNNP and Oromia, with a reporting rate over 83 per cent. In Tigray, trends in admissions fluctuated during the reporting period, while it has been difficult to describe the trends in Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz and Somali regions due to low reporting rates. TFP performance on all indicators, including cure, death and defaulter rates, was above the standard cut-off points for both national and Sphere minimum standards. According to ENCU projections, TFP admissions are expected to continue to decrease through the end of 2010 before stabilizing in the early months of 2011. The standard nutrition assessment conducted by the NGOs Save the Children UK and Merlin in Melka Soda woreda (Borena zone, Oromia) indicates a 'normal' nutrition situation. The results of surveys conducted in Somali and Amhara regions are still being analyzed. Also in September, UNICEF provided on-the-job training on quality care provision in TFPs to 14 health extension workers and 10 nurses from Gonder Zuria, West Bellesa, Ankober, Basoworena, Merhabete and Gidan woredas in Amhara. In SNNPR, the Halaba Special Woreda health office and UNICEF conducted a joint monitoring in 38 per cent of health posts and recommended regular supportive supervision, refreshment trainings and monitoring of supplies. Meanwhile, the NGO Merlin strengthened nutrition interventions in flood-affected woredas of Afar Region. Nutrition actors have completed the hotspot classification Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Oromia, SNNP, Somali and Tigray, and the results have been submitted to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) for compilation. DRMFSS is following up with the remaining regions to ensure a comprehensive revision of the national hotspot woreda list for response planning and coordination. For more information, contact: isaackm@dppc.gov.et& kmcdonald@unicef.org

Poor water availability in the southeast likely to follow below-average Oct-Dec rains

Key Messages

h To date, the performance of bega/hageya/deyr rains has been below average as predicted. This has resulted in shortages of pasture and water in the southeastern pastoral and agropastoral parts of the country.

h Land preparation and planting of transitional crops, mainly sweet potato has been carried out as usual in SNNPR. Performance of these crops will highly depend on the performance of the sapie rains in December that are predicted to be normal to below normal this year.

h Overall meher season crop harvests (October to January) are expected to be normal to above normal this year, except in areas that were affected by water logging, floods, and yellow wheat rust, resulting in an overall improvement in food security in dominantly meher crop producing parts of the country.

Key Messages

In recent months cereal prices have continued to follow a gradually decreasing trend and maize prices in the capital city were lower than prices on the international market.

Pockets of food insecurity exist due to different localized shocks such as poor rains in the southeast or floods in Amhara region, while tensions with rebel groups continue.

Food security is improving throughout the country, and the number of people in need of food assistance during the last months of the year decreased to 2.3 million.

The government with the help of international agencies is continuing to assist the population while investing in agricultural production to increase food security.

- Following the meher harvest, which began in October 2010, food security has generally improved in the meher producing parts of the country. However, due to crop damage caused by widespread floods and other weather related shocks the meher harvest is likely to be lower than initially anticipated. The Humanitarian Requirement Documents outlining assistance needs is expected to be released in February 2011.

- Although the National Meteorology Agency has not provided a forecast for the April to June gu/genna/belg rains, below normal performance of these rains is considered likely. This is expected to exacerbate prevailing food insecurity which resulted from near complete failure of October to December rains in southern pastoral and agro pastoral areas.

- Due to close to normal sapie (December/January) 2010 rains food security among the dominant root crop, mainly sweet potatoes growing areas in central and eastern SNNPR is estimated to remain stable throughout the outlook period. The poor and very

- poor households normally rely on these harvests, during the March to May lean season.

- Staple food prices are likely to follow typical seasonal trends throughout the outlook period, though remain higher than the 2005 to 2009 averages given the current harvest and the continued price stabilization measures taken by the government.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The overall good performance of the 2010 belg and meher rains contributed to improving the food security situation in areas that benefit from the seasonal rains, apart for some pockets in the eastern lowlands areas. The food security situation is, however, deteriorating in the south and south eastern pastoral and agro-pastoral areas following poor performance of the 2010 deyr/hagaya rains (October to December), which has resulted in water and pasture shortage.

Accordingly, the findings of the multi-agency assessment and subsequent monitoring results indicate that approximately 2.8 million people require relief food assistance in 2011.

The total net emergency food requirement from January to December 2011 and non-food needs for the first six months amounts to USD 180,561,400. The net food requirement, including TSF needs, stands at 234,017 MT, estimated to cost around USD 180,561,400. In addition a total of USD 45,979,151 is required to respond to non-food needs of identified beneficiaries in the health and nutrition, water and sanitation and agriculture and education sectors.