Burundi: East Africa Food Security Alert: November 2, 2010

The recent IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) forecast confirms that a La Niña event continues and will likely persist into 2011. As a result, rainfall during the October?December period is likely to be below?average in the eastern sector of East Africa (Figure 1). An analysis of rainfall during past La Niña years suggests that while early season rainfall may be favorable, precipitation later in the season is likely to be erratic and end early. This poor performance is expected to result in a worse than usual January?March lean season, offsetting the modest recovery in household food security which occurred during 2009/10, following three years of drought. March?May 2011 rains, the major rains for this region, may also be below?average. Four areas are of particular concern: agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia (Area A), southeast marginal cropping areas of Kenya (Area B), cropping areas of Rwanda/Burundi (Area C), and pastoral areas of Somalia, northeastern Kenya, and southeastern Ethiopia. In these at?risk areas, household receipt of livelihood support over the comingmonths could help to prevent deterioration in food security.